Wednesday, June 07, 2006

TUF 4 Seminfinals

Well finally we get down to the nitty gritty. Here's our analysis of the fighters and what could happen.

Light Heavyweights

Michael Bisping
I think it will be quite an upset if 'the Count' doesn't bring in that contract. His Muay Thai looked very sharp in his only fight and he's been in JJ for something like fifteen years so that should be a strength as well. His biggest weakness is his wrestling and one worry is that the rest of the LHW's all have wrestling background, so he'll have to watch for that. His biggest threat seems to be his training partner, Matt Hamill. In what little I have seen of Bisping I would say the best way to attack him would be to work the clinch, keep him close and try to pound on him. He doesn't have a very muscular frame so a good wrestler could probably keep him close and control him as long as they don't get caught with a sub attempt. I see a good future for Bisping in the UFC and him being a contender in the mid term future.

Matt Hamill
This guy's wrestling is superb and his boxing was okay. Keep in mind he beat Nichels who's standup looked almost as good as my four year olds, so lets not get too high on his boxing. I think his biggest threat is Bisping or maybe Josh Haynes. Hamill doesn't take shots to the head too well so i'd ring his bell and then go all out on him. He doesn't seem to have much of a sub game and isn't a knockout artist so he cannot win a fight suddenly so at worst you're looking at most if not all of his fights being by lay n pray. I don't see much of a future for Hamill in the UFC unless he shows he can take a beating and keep coming.

Josh Haynes
He looks like a big puncher and has some wrestling so expect a sprawl and brawl gameplan from Haynes. I wasn't terribly impressed over all but I bet if he connects flush things would get interesting in a hurry. His biggest threat would be Bisping. The way to attack Haynes would be to stay back and use length against his short arms. His hands have decent speed but he seems to react slow so I think a Bisping could slip in and land something then back off and evade the berserker like response from Haynes. Haynes could see some fights in the UFC but I don't expect much of a splash from him. Sorry man.

Jesse Forbes
Well what can I say he doesn't deserve to be here but he is so lets get down to it. Jesse is a wildcard and seems to have a nice ground game but maybe susceptible to a submission, ala Noah. His biggest threat would be Bisping for that very reason. To beat Jesse i'd keep it on the feet as much as possible and look for the knee when he shoots. If that doesn't connect try for a quick sub as you tumble to the ground. Jesse could have a future in UFC mainly because he's young and has time to improve.



Middleweights

Rory Singer
I'm not sure about this guy. Is he a well rounded fighter with some experience or is he a journeyman who has peaked? Yes his kick to the head on Soloman was a bit of a fluke but he finished it nicely and took advantage which is what you want. Singer could be a sleeper. His biggest threat would probably be Ed because of the raw power disparity between the two. Despite his wrestling experience I think I would keep it standing against Rory, I don't see him taking down his opponent consistently, and beat on him. Unfortunately none of the remaining guys are strikers so that could play into his favor. Singer could have something of a future in the UFC but probably never be a contender.

Kendall Grove
Probably the biggest x-factor in the group. His length makes him dangerous whether on the ground or standing up. If his standup is decent he could use that to his advantage whomever he fights. His biggest threat would be Ed most likely because, again, of the strength disparity. I would attack Grove, take him down and try to isolate one of those long limbs. Grove could have a future in the UFC but how much of one remains to be seen, I just haven't seen enough of his game yet.

Ed Herman
Ed looked good in his win over Danny but then again Danny has no groundgame. Ed and Kalib have to be the favorites to with this weightclass in my estimation. His groundgame looked good, the pounding aspect okay and yes he won by sub but Danny was pretty much begging for an arm bar at that point so there are still some question marks. Ed's biggest threat is most likely Kalib. It plays to Ed's favor that there are no true strikers left as that is his big weakness. Ed could have a bright future in the UFC as he is young and has a solid looking game right now. His big mouth could be one thing that helps him out even if he is seen as a heel.

Kalib Starnes
Kalib seems cool and calm under pressure and he made such quick work of his first opponent that I would pick Starnes to win if it were not for his broken leg. His biggest threat would probably be Ed and his power. To beat Kalib i'd try to work standup and just generally frustrate his game plan. Kalib is older than a lot of TUF guys which means he has probably less upside but he's already good and could be a solid UFC fighter tomorrow.

How the fights will play out.....well who knows other than Dana White. It would be a shame to not have Matt and Mike in the finals facing off so expect that to happen. The middleweight class is more wide open but look for Ed against Kalib or maybe Kendall.

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